The political and social hostility toward Elon Musk is having a clear impact on Tesla, the electric car maker he leads as CEO. The stock is one of the worst performers of the year within the S&P 500, down more than 40%. But while the stock market figures paint a complicated picture, on another, less visible path, Tesla is stepping on the gas in its riskiest venture: autonomous driving.
Yes, despite the media hype, regulatory battles, and a climate of social hostility, Tesla has taken a key step toward its most ambitious dream. The California regulator has authorized the company to operate a small fleet of employee-owned robotaxis on pre-designed internal routes.
It’s a first permit, limited, yes, but loaded with symbolism. Elon Musk has been promising a self-driving car for over a decade. And for the first time, an authority in the largest US market has given it the green light.
Of course, Tesla isn’t alone in this race. Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary that started as a project within Google called Google Self-Driving, is miles ahead. Its cars are already operating without drivers in cities like San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Its alliance with Uber in the Texas capital allows it to offer more than 200,000 weekly rides, and by 2025 it plans to expand to Miami, Atlanta, and ten other cities.
While Musk presents prototypes without pedals or steering wheels, Waymo has racked up millions of real-life kilometers traveled without a driver. Literally.
The silent war of the autonomous car is underway
The vanguard of this new technology is located in Austin, Texas. There, in front of one of Tesla’s buildings, Waymo’s robotaxis rest, ready to pick up passengers. The road between them has become an imaginary technological battle line. To the east, Google’s commitment to safety, LIDAR sensors, which measure distances using lasers to detect objects in the environment with great precision, and robust infrastructure.
To the west, Tesla’s vision based on a camera system and machine learning that attempts to mimic the way humans drive, without laser sensors or radars.
But if this sector has learned anything, it’s that technology alone isn’t enough. Regulation, the political climate, and public opinion matter as much as algorithms. And Musk, more than anyone, is experiencing this firsthand.
The Molotov cocktail attack on Tesla dealerships in the United States has escalated to the point where it has been classified as domestic terrorism by the Attorney General’s Office. All due to his closeness to the Trump administration and his “polarizing” rhetoric.
Meanwhile, its competitors aren’t resting. Amazon, with Zoox; Volkswagen, with ADMT; or Baidu, from China, with Apollo Go; and emerging firms like Cruise (temporarily suspended in California due to accidents) and Motional, backed by giants like General Motors and Hyundai, continue to invest billions in technologies that not only compete with, but also shape the future of urban transportation.
Waymo, for example, has traveled more than 1.5 million autonomous kilometers in 2024 alone, and Baidu operates more than 400 vehicles in Wuhan, running 24 hours a day.
The prize at stake is no small feat. McKinsey estimates that the robotaxis market could be worth between $300 and $400 billion over the next decade. ARK Invest goes further, targeting $3.4 trillion. This craze is attracting not only tech giants but also investment funds and governments that see this model as a solution to urban congestion and climate change.
New businesses that move without drivers
In this scenario, the business model is also being reinvented. It seems we’ll have to forget about the traditional taxi. We’re talking about monthly subscriptions, autonomous delivery, automated school transportation. In China, Baidu’s robotaxis are already 70% cheaper than a human taxi. And if cost projections hold true, we could see urban rides for $1.60. That would be a real game-changer.
However, it’s not all plain sailing. Safety concerns persist. The technology has yet to surpass Level 2 autonomous driving in most cases. Tesla remains far from the technical leader, ranking eighth, according to Consumer Reports. Mercedes already markets vehicles with Level 3 automation. And Waymo’s remote assistance model, where a human intervenes only in critical situations, is even more sophisticated than many imagine.
Austin, which has become a testing ground for this revolution, offers some clues about what’s coming. There, Uber maintains Waymo’s fleet, decides where the cars will operate, and how long they should be parked at night to avoid hot spots. Meanwhile, Musk assures us that the first Cybercabs will be on the road this summer. But after years of unfulfilled announcements, no one wants to bet everything on that.
The suspense intensifies. Will Tesla regain its lost confidence and achieve the market leadership it has been promising for years? Or will Waymo impose its patient, slow but steady model? The robotaxi revolution will not be cheap, humane, or silent. But it has already begun. And like any good story, we still don’t know who will win.